Ligue 1

3rd round – post match analysis

Lens 1-0 PSG

My pick: PSG -0,5 at 1,73 


To be honest, I wasn’t satisfied with the selection after seeing the match as I expected much more from players that are somehow “written off” at the club, but at the same time, my strongest argument for this match went on the fact that the midfield of PSG will strongly dominate and therefore we should see plenty of chances created… Well, the midfield was playing above the average. They had 79% of possession, there were plenty of gaps in defense of Lens but the attack of PSG looked on the level of the 3rd tier team. I was mostly disappointed by Sarabia who looked like if Tuchel decided to play with the goalkeeper in the attack. All in all, I took the pick also regarding the odds which I think we won’t see often against PSG but unfortunately didn’t pay off. Was the pick good or not? I think I should simply give at least a match “to go” for this team, as it came right after the national team and I’m usually skipping those kinds of matches after breaks…



Bordeaux 0-0 Lyon

My pick: Lyon team totals over 1,5 at 2,06


One of those matches where I can not believe that the suggested pick didn’t pay off. Lyon was absolutely the better side, they had 20 shots, some of them were from “ridiculous” positions but it looks like compared to the last season, nothing has changed with this team this season. They create, they come into superb chances but then it’s simply impossible to put the ball in the net. With 20 shots, they were unable to score not even once, and even if Costill, the goalkeeper of Bordeaux had some decent saves, this result shouldn’t stay at 0-0. Still, if I have to analyze this match once again, knowing the way of both teams playing I think I wouldn’t change anything. Maybe I’d be looking for a straight win or Lyon, but I’d still prefer the team total bet here.


Montpellier 3-1 Nice

My pick: over 2,25 goals at 1,90


The only regret I have for this match is that I didn’t pick the normal 2,5 line with a bit more juicy odds. With Delort in the team, regardless of being without Mollet, this team simply looked way better. Zakarian’s tactics with pushed up fullbacks and incredible relation between Laborde and Delort worked great and the final result could be much higher. Nice weren’t as superb as their results were showing, and it was just a question of time when one solid team will “put them back on the earth”. Nice played one of those matches where they simply put themselves to sleep with their senseless possession game without the purpose. The entrance of Gouiri in the second half changed things a bit, but it was already too late.



Monaco 2-1 Nantes

My pick: Monaco -0,5 at 1,93


The final result should be even bigger as Monaco missed some great chances in the last 20 minutes of the game, so overall I am satisfied with the selection here. Maybe I could go in the match “a bit more ballsy” and pick team totals over 1,5 for Monaco, with higher odds but 1,93 for the straight win was simply enough. Nantes started poor, then they somehow succeeded to balance the match for 10 minutes, and after that Monaco was a way better opponent once again. Kovac decided to pull out Ben Yedder in the 78th minute and his substitute Pellegri simply seemed completely off and I am wondering if Kovac will be still looking to use this player, especially if Jovetić recovers completely. Onyekuru and Geubbels spiced up the attack of ASM and I think that if Ben Yedder stayed to combine with them, we’d see a bigger difference at the end. There was a situation where Nantes got their goal canceled by VAR and even though the decision was questionable, I’m glad that it finally went in my favor. Moreover, even if Nantes tied the match in the 20th minute, I’m almost 100% sure that the final result wouldn’t be any different as the Canaries simply weren’t at their best in the south of France.



* Conclusion:

With 2 good and 2 wrong picks, we finished this round without the profit, and I will have to be a bit more careful with “trusting” some big teams at the moment. Even though I’ve sent those picks, stakes are still pretty low and cautious, but they will slightly start increasing as I will be getting more and more comfortable with teams. Obviously, the COVID-19 situation and its rules are affecting this season so it’s a completely new factor when it comes to analyzing matches, but we’ll get through that as well. The Transfer window is open until the 5th of October, which means we will also still see some changes in teams. In general, I feel that I shouldn’t pick the PSG against Lens, while I could go a bit more ballsy in matches of Montpellier and Monaco. Anyways, we’ve passed the third round, and the “marathon” continues.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *