Bundesliga, 29th round

Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt

Betting suggestions:

  • both teams to score & over 2,5 @2,06 Pinnacle
  • Eintracht Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @2,17 Pinnacle

Short preview: Yes, this match has been postponed in the 24th round and actually isn’t part of the 29th round of Bundesliga, but as it is the 29th match for both teams, I decided to put it here and not open a new post. As I’ve mentioned last time speaking about Werder Bremen, they started showing some signs of awakening, but they will face a decent side this time and it will be interesting to see how they will respond to the offensive-minded Frankfurt. Sahin, Toprak, Pizzaro are still amongst the injured players, but the only serious worry of the coach Kohfeldt is if one of his key players – Bittencourt (scored against Schalke) will be fit for this match, as he was subbed out at the half-time against Schalke due to the minor injury. Eintracht on the other side is still without Paciencia but have some other players stepping up in the form and I believe that after a huge win in Wolfsburg, they will be headed to Bremen with the same purpose – attack and create as many chances as possible. Against Wolfsburg, they weren’t as aggressively attacking as against Freiburg just one round earlier, but Wolfsburg is definitely a team that stays more compact, and capable of defending well-organized, with plenty of physical players cover set-pieces solid as well. The statistics are just proving that, as they are 6th best defensive team in the league – conceding 36 goals in 29 matches (Leverkusen, Gladbach, Dortmund conceded 35). Werder Bremen, regardless of just hitting 3 clean-sheets in a row, are far from that as they conceded 59 goals until now, and are 3rd worst defensive team in the league. Thanks to their recent result, we have odds for over/under on a pretty decent line, but I do understand what are bookies doing over here – they are simply “gambling” on the question “whose style will take-over this match” and they are giving a bit of advantage to the home side. Well, I am doubtful about that. I believe Frankfurt won’t sit deep, they won’t flex with their defense as they aren’t the best defensively – they conceded only 6 goals less than Werder and are in the bottom half as well when it comes to the table of conceded goals. But with what they can flex, it is definitely their attack. With 46 goals scored, they are the first team after top5 of Bundesliga (Bayern, BVB, Bayer, Gladbach, Leipzig) and with recent form – scored 7 goals in last 3 matches I do believe they will be simply offensive aggressive too much and therefore expect that Werder will sooner or later be in a position that they will have to score to stay in the match. On the other hand, I am not afraid of the vice-versa situation neither, as I think that if Werder scores, we’ll see Frankfurt completely sending-in offensively and with Kostić, Kamada, Silva, Gačinović,… in a good form I can not imagine Werder being good enough defensively to keep them away from scoring. The worst-case scenario for the suggestion is if the match stays at 0-0 for a longer period, but with the way both teams are playing, I think that we’ll see at least a goal in the first 30 minutes. The difference regarding the match with Gladbach, where Werder managed to keep, let’s say a better side to a 0-0 draw, is in my opinion the fact that they were actually satisfied with the point and I believe they will have higher expectations tonight. They will try their best to grab a win and jump away from places that lead directly to relegation.  Talking about the match-winner – there is plenty of people thinking in a simple way – Werder is in need of points, while Frankfurt plays “for nothing”. I agree with that, as it’s obviously a fact to this game, but I disagree with the argument of plenty of tipsters, that Werder will simply win because of that. Frankfurt is a team way better than some others in the bottom half of the league table, and as mentioned last time – in my opinion they dropped plenty of points because they weren’t capable of fighting on two fronts – domestic league + Europa league. Now they are fully focused on Bundesliga, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Frankfurt winning once again. They did it against Wolfsburg, why not against Werder?

 

Köln v Leipzig

Betting suggestion: 

  • Leipzig -1 @1,92 Pinnacle
  • Leipzig & over 2,5 goals @1,81 Pinnacle

Short preview:  Tonight at 20:30 on RheinEnergieStadion we will see the last match of the 29th round of Bundesliga, where will 11th placed Köln host 5th Leipzig. Hosts are still in a miserable form since the Bundesliga returned, as they won only two points in three matches. That might not be as bad as it sounds when you know the names of their opponents – Mainz, Fortuna, and Hoffenheim. Of course, they lost against Hoffenheim, but they were surely counting on more points from the first two matches. On the other side, we have Leipzig that missed the chance of jumping up to the second Dortmund in the last round – they failed against Hertha (2-2), and now they are sitting on the edge of the places that lead to the Champions League. As said yesterday for Gladbach, there is no place for mistakes as every single lost point will count almost double in the last matches. Both, Gladbach and Leverkusen are one point in front of Leipzig at the moment, so there will be nothing else than 3 points in their heads. Players of Köln can be calm for now, as they are 7 points ahead of the 16th Fortuna Düsseldorf, but I am not even counting on that too much here, as we could easily understand it in the way that there will be more pressure on shoulders of Leipzig and they won’t be able to perform at their best, but Leipzig wants to become one of the teams that will standardly participate in Champions League and they definitely possess the quality to do so. Therefore, my main reason why I am suggesting to be on the side of “Red Bulls” here is not just because they simply must win this match, but also because they have much more quality in the team. As usual, they still have some problems with injuries, but their squad is gigantic. Nagelsmann can rotate among a high number of quality players they can adapt to different styles of football and I believe that their last match against Hertha simply wasn’t their best day and that they will perform at the much higher level tonight against Köln. Bulls will be without red-carded Halstenberg who has let the team down against Hertha and still injured Ampadu, Konate and Poulsen. Nagelsmann was happy to get Kampl back in the first two matches “post-corona” but it looks like the midfielder picked up another injury and is doubtful for the match. Köln on the other hand, will miss suspended Bornauw, and injured Czichos. Other options are also Leipzig to score in both halves, priced around 2,20, or Leipzig team totals over 2 @1,74.

 

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Union Berlin

Betting suggestions: 

  • Gladbach team totals over 2 @2,07 Pinnacle
  • Gladbach -1 @1,91 Pinnacle

Short preview: The first Sunday’s match in the 29th round of Bundesliga will be played on Borussia-Park, where currently 5th placed Gladbach will host 13th Union Berlin. Gladbach started this season really good, but thanks to the major problems of all solid teams in Bundesliga (except Bayern) – inconsistency, they dropped down and right now they are holding the fifth place on the league table, with 11 points more than 6th Wolfsburg and in this round, they will have a chance to even extend the gap with “wolves”, as they lost against Frankfurt with 1-2. Union Berlin finally got the first point in the “post-corona” period as they played 1-1 against Mainz in the last round. Gladbach drew as well, but away at Werder who started showing some signs of being alive, especially after today’s win over Schalke. Unfortunately for the home manager, Gladbach is still without Embolo and Zakaria, but they still have Plea, Thuram, and I think that at least offensively, they shouldn’t have too many problems with breaking the defense of Union Berlin, which conceded 4 goals two rounds ago on the Berlin derby against Hertha. Gladbach is not only in a position to make a gap with Wolfsburg as mentioned before but also to jump over Leipzig on 4th, and equalize with Bayer Leverkusen on the league table. As it seems, Bayern added a new trophy to their name, but I believe we will be part of one hell of a race between Dortmund, Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Gladbach, who will be fighting for the Champions League spots. On the paper, Gladbach probably is the weakest team, but that’s just another reason why they have to win matches like this one is, especially regarding the situation. Union with only 4 points above Fortuna, is surely feeling some pressure as the 16th place leads to qualifiers to avoid relegation. I am not even doubtful about the fact, that they are coming in Gladbach to try to steal some points, but a question is what can their manager Fischer really change. With two defeats and one draw against poor Mainz at home, it seems that his boys didn’t come back in the best shape and I can not imagine them really well enough defensively, to hold Gladbach away. After a solid win over Frankfurt in the first match, Gladbach failed in the last two so with 6 rounds until the end of the season, and given the situation, there is definitely not the time to fail against teams like Union. Other options are also Gladbach ht/ft, priced around 2,20, or Gladbach and that they score more than 1,5 goals.

 

Hertha Berlin v Augsburg

Betting suggestions: 

  • Hertha -0,5 @1,94 Pinnacle 
  • Augsburg team totals under 1 @1,99 Pinnacle

Short preview: We could say that Hertha deserved “at least 2 points” in Leipzig as they played a very decent match. What surprised me the most was the performance of Boyata and Torunarigha, who were synchronized through the whole match against a very strong opponent. Leipzig played the solid first half, but even if they succeeded to create some gaps, they suffered in the final third. Someone might say “what are you talking, they conceded two goals…” Well, everyone who has seen the match knows what I’m talking about. The first goal came from the set-piece, while the second simply came as a gift from Jarstein. The key question for today’s match is – will Labbadia succeed to motivate his team to be eager to get 3 points as much as they were in Leipzig? Augsburg definitely isn’t an as attractive team as Leipzig, and at the moment they are only 4 points away from the 16th spot which leads to relegation qualifiers. Hertha didn’t start the season at their best, but it looks that the shock therapy with Labbadia worked well and with 7 points in the “post-corona” period, they are one of the most in-form teams in Bundesliga. With all the tall, physical players, with individuals like Cunha, veteran Ibisević, still, a guy who has to prove himself, Piatek, they have plenty of fire-weapons and they should score at least once here. On the other side, with the defensive performance in Leipzig, and obviously both results from first two matches – 4-0, 0-3, they convinced me but I suggest to take the safer option with Augsburg total under 1, which means the pick will be voided in case of exactly one goal scored by the away side. Of course, for those who like to chase higher odds, Hertha win to nil is priced at 3,70!

 

 

Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt

Betting suggestion: 

  • both teams to score & over 2,5 @1,961 Pinnacle

Short preview: To be honest, firstly I had Wolfsburg to win here, but analyzing the match a bit more, I almost went to Frankfurt team totals over 1, but as the price is pretty low (1,74), I decided to simply suggest goals in this one. Wolfsburg ate plenty of staked units last time when they won away at Leverkusen, but even though they scored 4 times, I can not see them as a team to who I would “blindly” believe and follow to snap home wins, especially not against tricky opponents like Eintracht. They are a team that plays extremely offensive and the fact that they fired 35 shots against Freiburg in a very interesting match which finished with 3-3. Looking at stats, I believe no one can explain how that happened. As we know, the ball is rounded and everything can happen in football. Well, I wouldn’t be so surprised to see Eintracht snapping a point from Wolfsburg, but I would be surprised to see Wolfsburg keeping a clean sheet here. Frankfurt is only 2 points away from the 16th position, but I can not really imagine them playing anyhow different than they do – offensively. In my opinion, they are one of those teams who stayed in European competitions pretty long, and therefore they suffered in the league. We’ve seen similar things with Strasbourg and especially Rennes in Ligue 1. They don’t deserve to be that low on the league table, and I believe things will get better for them until the end of the season.

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