Bundesliga, 30th round

Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz

Betting suggestion:

  • both to score & over 2,5 goals @1,85Pinnacle
  • Frankfurt team totals over 1,5 @1,73 Pinnacle

Short preview: I’ve been on the “Frankfurt train” for a whole, and I will keep with them as they simply look like a team that found the way how to get the things done after the break. Yes, they lost against Bayern in the first match with 5-2, but I think it’s really unnecessary to speak about Bayern and compare it to the rest of the league at the moment.  Frankfurt have won their last two matches, and neither of them was against an easy opponent. Firstly, they won against Wolfsburg away, then against Werder. Two teams in different zones, first fighting for European spots, while second fighting to avoid the relegation. This time, they will face another team that is fighting to avoid the relegation, but at least at the moment seems to be pretty weak and even though they somehow found the way in past years to avoid to be relegated, it seems more and more possible, that they will find themselves on positions that are leading to the “Zweite Bundesliga”, or at least to qualifications with the 3rd best team of the second league. They drew against Union Berlin, they lost against Leipzig and Hoffenheim at home, and they will be pretty much under pressure today against Frankfurt. As I’ve said in the past two rounds, Frankfurt isn’t a bad team and they deserve to be at least in the top 10 if not higher. With Andre Silva and Dost keeping up in form, always dangerous Kostić and Kamada, this team of Hütter especially now, playing “relaxed” as they made an 8 points gap with the 16th Fortuna, will be simply too much at least offensively. They conceded some easy goals anyways, especially against Freiburg (3-3), but their offensive part have delivered so far, therefore I think taking their goals is the safest option. An interesting option is also Frankfurt & over 2,5 goals at 2,75!

 

Freiburg v Borussia Moenchengladbach

Betting suggestions:

  • Gladbach -0,5 @1,80 Pinnacle
  • Gladbach team totals over 1,5 @1,74 Pinnacle
  • both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,00 Pinnacle

Short preview: The first duel of the 30th round of Bundesliga, will be played on Schwarzwald-Stadion, where will 8th placed Freiburg host the 4th Gladbach. Those two teams look much closer if comparing their position than the number of points – Freiburg 38, Gladbach 56. Therefore both in a completely different situation, but they both have a chance to finish with the same “award” at the end – at least when it comes to the European spots. Freiburg is 4 points behind 6th Wolfsburg, while Gladbach is “sharing” the 4th spot with Bayer Leverkusen. Therefore, it can happen that they finish 5th and 6th, which means both will participate in the Europe League next season. As I’ve mentioned in the last analyses, there are only 5 rounds until the end, and regarding the fact that Gladbach will have to face Bayern away in the next round, and Wolfsburg and “awaken” Hertha at home, they are simply not allowed to skip points here. With empty stadiums, we’ve seen that there is a much smaller advantage of the home ground, so I am willing to take them even though the odds are pretty short. The importance of three points for them is simply too big, they raised the atmosphere in the locker-room with the 4-1 win over Union Berlin, and after some of their individuals are performing as they are, I do believe in this team. Freiburg have won only 3 times since the 14th of December 2019 and are on the road downwards for a while now (3 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats – before the break and 0, 2, 2 after the break). To be more precise, they drew with Leipzig and Frankfurt, but on both matches, they could have finished with 5 goals behind the opponent. Same against Leverkusen, where they lost “only” 0-1, but it could have been much more. It’s hard to predict how will Freiburg enter this match, as they are really out of form, but I believe Gladbach will press and attack from the beginning of the match. They are a better side, they have some individuals Freiburg can only dream about, and if nothing else, than individual superiority, should be the reason that Gladbach leaves the Schwarzwald-Stadion with all three points. I’m not sure about Freiburg’s European interest as I think they don’t have a squad that would be capable of playing equivalently on more fronts, and I think they will be completely satisfied with the mid-table finish. One interesting information about Freiburg: “In the last 10 matches, they have averaged only 1 xGF per game! Counting only the matches after the break, this number dropped to 0,7 xGF per game! And yes, they scored 3-times in Frankfurt.

*As the rain is expected in Schwarzwald tonight, that might be a “fuel” to the weaker team, but I still think that Gladbach will create much more than the home side, and regardless of the weather condition, we will see an offensive approach from both sides. I am adding both teams to score & over 2,5 goals to suggestions.

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