La Liga, 28th round

 

Sevilla v Real Betis

Preview: La Liga is back! And they will offer us so-called “El Gran Derbi” between Sevilla and Real Betis, two teams from Sevilla. As we were used to see in past seasons, Sevilla are the club with the upper hand as they are once again much better positioned than their rival (Sevilla 3rd, with 47 points; Betis 12th, with 33 points). At the moment, Sevilla is in a very hot spot, as they are the leading team in the group of 4 teams – Sevilla 47, Real Sociedad and Getafe 46, and Atletico Madrid 45 points, plus we can not cut off Valencia on the 7th with 42 points. Therefore every single match will be very important for the team of Lopetegui. Real Betis on the other side are currently 12th, and even though they had bigger ambitions before the season. Right now, they are 12 points behind 6th Atletico and 8 points above the relegation zone.

This time, Pizjuan definitely won't look like that...
This time, Pizjuan definitely won’t look like that…

Sevilla was in a pretty solid form before the break as they won away at as mentioned, very good Getafe with 0-3 on Coliseum, then Osasuna at home with 3-2, and in the last match they drew with away at Atletico Madrid (2-2). Besides that, they played 0-0 at home and 1-1 away at Cluj and will play face AS Rome in the next phase of the Europa League.  Coach Lopetegui has some problems with the winger Ocampos, who has slightly injured his adductor and is questionable. As we were able to see in Bundesliga, rotations will be very important as they plan to play all 11 rounds of La Liga in only 6 weeks! Sevilla have a pretty wide squad and with a very good coach as Lopetegui definitely is, they should not be among those who will suffer a lot due to the short bench.

The board of Real Betis had much bigger expectations for this season, as they spent a bit more than 100M € in the transfer period before the season. The break might even come at a good time for them as, except the last surprising win over Real Madrid with 2-1, they had a run of 7 matches without winning the match. In my opinion, they have an exceptional squad and those who were reading my posts were able to see that I liked to play overs and both teams to score on their matches, as they were simply a team that was very solid offensively, and at the same time very weak at the defense. They conceded 43 goals, plenty of them due to the lack of concentration and poor positioning. Talking about the depth, Betis isn’t a team that should be among those struggling the most either, as Rubi has some option to rotate as well.

As I said many times, in my opinion, matches are the best training, but the tempo will be simply extremely high and for some teams very hardly followed. Some players were used to play with this rhythm, but most of them aren’t and therefore I suggest being careful with stakes for 1-2 rounds, to see a bit how some individuals worked during the quarantine. Obviously, clubs were tracking their activity level, giving them training, checking all the available data but still, some players worked harder than others and that should be visible in those first rounds. I’d go with Sevilla here, but not without their fans on Pizjuan. Fans in a derby like this are always a huge advantage, especially in those two clubs, where they always prepare a living hell to each other. This time, it will be more about tactics, superiority, team quality, individual quality, and I think Betis is simply too weak at the back, and I expect Sevilla to score at least twice. Still, that might not be enough for the win…

Betting suggestions: 

  • both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle
  • Sevilla team totals over 1,5 @1,925
  • both teams to score & over 2,5 goals @2,24 Pinnacle

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *