La Liga, 29th round

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid

Preview: Stadium El Sadar in Pamplona will host the match between 11th Osasuna and 6th Atletico Madrid. The referee will be Ricardo de Burgos who is known as a referee that likes to show plenty of cards. He has shown 59 yellow and 3 red cards in last 10 matches. Atletico will continue their “war” for the CL spot, while Osasuna pretty much safe in the middle of the table with 10 points above the relegation zone.

For me, the team from Pamplona is definitely one of the surprises in La Liga this season, as I didn’t expect them to be in so much comfortable situation 10 rounds before the end. Of course, there is still plenty of matches, and things can turn “southern”, but I don’t believe it. They returned after the break with the draw away at Real Sociedad, where it’s true that they were defending for the majority of the match, but they scored first, and when Osasuna scores first, it’s always tough to break them down as they really drop the defensive line and simply defend for the rest of the game. The question about tonight’s match is if they will change their 5-men defense back to 4, or keep it at 5 as they played the majority of the match against Sociedad. The best goalscorer Avila is still out injured, which means we will probably once again see the pair Adrian Lopez – Cardona.

Atletico is at the moment on the 6th spot, which definitely isn’t enough for their demands. Regarding the squad and the importance of the name of the club in past years, it’s simply necessary for Simeone’s men to reach at least the 4th spot. Getafe and Sevilla both lost 2 points this round, which means a very good opportunity for Atletico to jump higher on the league table. That could be the round, where Atletico jumps over Getafe and Sociedad (if they fail against Alaves) and reduces the gap with Sevilla on only 2 points! Simeone will miss Vrsaljko, Vitolo, and Felipe, but has the whole first 11 available, so there should be no excuses for tonight.

Even though there are rumors that Osasuna will go back to the 4-men defense, I have serious doubts about that and I expect them with 5 at the back. If there will be no crazy goals out of nowhere – regarding the two opponents that shouldn’t happen – then that should stay more like a lower scoring match, but still with the away side taking all the three points. Atletico is definitely a team that belongs in the top4 of the league and it would be a huge surprise if that won’t happen. As mentioned, results in this round are going in the favor of Atletico, but all of that will be useless if they don’t add three points to their name. They are the better side, they have much more experiences, they already dropped points with Bilbao last round, and they will win this match no matter what!

Betting suggestion: 

  • Atletico Madrid -0,5 @1,88 Pinnacle

Other suggestions: Atletico & under 2,5 @3,70, Atletico win to nil @2,80

Atlético - Diego Simeone attend le retour des blessés avec impatience
Simeone’s Atletico is in a must-win situation!

 

Villarreal v Mallorca

Preview: With 41 points after 28 rounds, the Yellow submarine can still aim for European places. It’s expected that the 7th place will still lead in Europe and Villarreal are 2 points behind 7th Valencia at the moment. Mallorca on the other side is 1 point behind 17th Celta Vigo and only 2 in front of Leganes and Espanyol, therefore every match is super important.

Villarreal reached the important victory away at Celta Vigo who are in the “relegation battle” as well. With those three points, they canceled the negative run of three defeats they had before the break. The defeat against Leganes on the 8th of March was definitely a harsh punch and as it seems, the break came at a good time for them. With Iborra suspended, we will see the 4-3-3 formation with Zambo, Trigueros, and Cazorla in midfield.

Yes, Mallorca is in a bad position but at the same time, we have to admit they had their chances against Barcelona. Altogether, they had 13 shots, and some of them were actually decent chances. The truth is that in the first 10 minutes, Barça could already be 3 goals in front, but after that Mallorca pressed and especially over youngster Kubo prepared some very solid chances. Daniel Rodriguez is the suspended player and will most likely mean we will see Lago on the wing.

I do expect the home win here, but odds are pretty low so I would be looking at Asian handicaps. At the moment, we can get -1 at 1,653 which is in my opinion still too short. Seeing the lineup of Villarreal with three very offensive players up-front Paco, Bacca, and Chukwueze, I see value in goals. Especially thanks to the fact that Mallorca produced some chances against Barça. Yes, they are catastrophic when playing away, but if they don’t change that, I’m afraid that chances for them to avoid the relegation are very small. Very interesting odds are also Villarreal to win and both teams to score at 3,25.

Betting suggestion:

  • over 2 goals @1,91 Pinnacle
  • Both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,38 Pinnacle

Getafe v Espanyol

Preview: Getafe is still flying high, keeping 5th place with 46 points but there is no doubt, that it will be very tough to keep this place with names like Atletico Madrid and Valencia being behind. With 4 and 5 points less, there are also Granada and Villarreal who can somehow count on a surprise as well. Getafe’s opponent will be the last placed Espanyol, who drastically changed after Abelardo took the team in his hand.

Getafe surely didn’t count on losing in Granada (2-1) and will try to bounce back today against Espanyol. Of course, that won’t be anywhere near easy, as Espanyol are in bloody need of points. With Etxeita suspended, we will probably see the pair Djene-Cabaco in the central defense. Bordalas has also Arambarri and Maksimović available after suspension, therefore the central midfield of Getafe will definitely look better than against Granada.

Espanyol as mentioned above have changed a lot since they named Abelardo as a head coach. All the 5 wins they got this season were under his leadership (and 18 of 25 goals) and I seriously think they won’t be the one that will be relegated. They won an important match in the last round against relegation rival Alaves with 2-0 and they had impressive 19 shots with 69% possession in this match. They also allowed only 1 shot to the opponent, who was really with the player less from the 19th minute on, but that doesn’t change the fact that we Abelardo wants to have an offensive-minded team on the pitch.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Espanyol having more possession in this match, but that doesn’t bother Getafe too much as they are a team that likes to strike directly after winning the possession. Both sides will want all three points here, but I think that odds are for the winner’s market are set pretty good, just a bit above evens. But I do like the goals market as I think we might see much more offensive from Espanyol than bookies are expecting.

Betting suggestion:

  • both teams to score @2,50 Pinnacle
  • over 2 goals @2,28 Pinnacle

Levante v Sevilla

Preview: today at 19:30, 12th placed Levante will host 3rd Sevilla on Estadio Milo Cano in Nucia. The stadium will be empty, therefore Levante won’t be able to enjoy the support of the home crowd and as we were able to see in Bundesliga, the advantage of the home ground has almost disappeared. For now, there is no pressure on Levante as they are 9 points above the relegation. Sevilla on the other side took advantage of the 28th round and made the gap with Atletico Madrid a bit bigger (4 points).

Levante drew in the local derby against Valencia 3 days ago, and once again shown that they are a team that likes to steal points from bigger clubs. They had a very positive record at home before the outbreak of Covid-19 as they won 9 of possible 12 points in the last 4 matches, including the 1-0 win over Real Madrid. Levante actually grabbed a win against both giants – Real and Barcelona on Milo Cano but the ambiance definitely won’t be the same against Sevilla. The major issue for the manager Paco Lopez is that he has his best scorer Roger Marti unavailable due to suspension.

Sevilla is coming into the match after comfortably getting 3 points on the derby with Betis and without any injury concerns for the coach Lopetegui. One major factor which is going in their favor is the fact, that they have a pretty big squad and for example today, he can use players like Banega, Gudelj, En-Nesyri, Suso, Gomez, Rony Lopes, Escudero, Vazquez, … who all stayed or on the bench, or were subbed in against Betis.

I expect Levante to try to play and surprise another big team in La Liga but at the same time I see this Sevilla with Lopetegui on the bench pretty serious and I don’t believe they will let their Champions League place to someone else. They are 3 points ahead of Sociedad and 4 in front of Getafe and Atletico Madrid and as they play first, they can add more pressure on others again. Here, I have mostly in mind Atletico Madrid, who will definitely push hard to get into this top4. Usually, we see goals between Levante and Sevilla, and with the fact that there will be no extra pressure for the home side, as mentioned, I expect them to attack and surprise Sevilla. On the other hand, Sevilla simply possess too much quality, they started this period with a very decent performance and clean win over the city rivals, and I expect them scoring at least once more than Levante.

Betting suggestions:

  • Sevilla -0,5 @1,77 Pinnacle
  • both teams to score @1,80 Pinnacle
  • both to score & over 2,5 goals @2,26 Pinnacle
  • Sevilla to win & both to score @3,50 Pinnacle

* I think odds on Sevilla are pretty short, and in-play you might get much better odds really early in the game. Anyways, here are suggestions, pick the one that suits you the best. Still, I suggest taking smaller stakes! If you are aiming to take all options, then I suggest splitting the stake!

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