UEFA Nations League, Tuesday 16th

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Slovenia v Cyprus

Betting suggestion: Slovenia -1,25 @2,75

When we had a few nice matches from betting perspective yesterday, we have only a few of them today. The only one I really liked is a match between Slovenia and Cyprus, but as odds on Slovenia are pretty short, I will decrease the stake and take higher odds here. Slovenia is in the middle of the crisis, where the public is already demanding the new manager, the new captain, new faces in the squad, etc. Truth is, that new manager is having some issues with the first star of this team, Atletico’s Jan Oblak, while Kevin Kampl, probably the second best individual of the team didn’t come due to the virus. To be honest, everything might have been different if Slovenians took their chances in the first match, where they were a better side than Bulgaria, but they were simply unlucky, or let’s say not concentrated enough in the key moments when Bulgarians scored two from their one chance. Huge difference with the first match against Cyprus will be a participation of Josip Iličić, who is by far the best offensive player in this team. Second difference participation of defensive midfielder Krhin, who is part of huge critics as well, but without him, this team is completely without a defensive block in the midfield. That was one of the main reasons why Cyprus caused so many problems to Slovenia in the first match. Of course, the main reason was simply the fact, that Slovenia even in the form they were in, underestimated their opponent. They didn’t take the match seriously, the coach changed 5-6 standard players, and they simply failed. Even in this case, they should get the 1-2 goal, which was disallowed unfairly due to the “offside” and then at the end, thanks to the own-goal of Stojanović who had a very poor game, Cyprus even managed to get all three points. As said yesterday, comparing those two teams is impossible. There is a huge difference in quality even without Kampl and Oblak, Slovenia has a much stronger squad and as there were few poor performances of this nation, I think that they have a perfect rebound ramp set today and I expect a convincing win for the home side. Cyprus is a team which is getting better, which is definitely a better side than a few years ago, but still, I think that except with ultra-defensive style and hoping on some luck from counters, they cannot really harm Slovenia away. I’ve been looking up to -2 with odds above 5,20 as I think there is some value for sure.

 

Norway v Bulgaria

Betting suggestion: Norway -1 @2,31

I think that if matches Slovenia v Bulgaria, and Bulgaria v Norway were played one more time, Bulgaria would very possible have 1 point and not 6 as they do right now. They had one amazing shot from distance and received one gift from the goalkeeper on the first match against Slovenia, and that was enough for 1-2. On the match against Norway, they had barely some dangerous situations but one goal was enough to beat them. On the other side, Norway had 12 corners, 10 shots, … Norway had some problems with Slovenia in the first 20 minutes, but after that, they established their way of football, physically stopped Slovenia who failed to create anything serious and Norwegians were simply better. Truth is, that the only goal, amazing goal of Selnaes came without a serious chance, but Norwegians were able to create some half-chances, being dangerous from wings but Slovenia managed to keep it only at 1-0. Norway has some very good individuals in their team, playing visible roles in their clubs and in my opinion, they are still the first favorite for the 1st spot in this group. Bulgaria will try to defend deep and keep their conversion rate as high as it is, but I think that their key player Popov will have difficulties with physical style of Norway’s defenders and defensive midfielders. If Norway succeeds at stopping Popov, I see this match being completely one-sided and I expect at least 2-0 win for the home side.

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